Characteristics and Stylized Facts of Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Egypt: A Growth Cycles Approach

نوع المستند : تجاریة کل ما یتعلق بالعلوم التجاریة

المؤلف

كلية التجارة -جامعة الزقازيق

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Economic activity in Egypt fluctuates year after year and undergoes significant short-run fluctuation. The research examines the main characteristics and dynamics of economic fluctuations in Egypt and builds a set of economic fluctuation indicators: leading, coincident, and lagging by using the "growth cycles approach". The result indicates that household consumption, total capital formation, and the unemployment rate are coincident variables. The import, nominal exchange rate, openness, stock market indicator, and interest rate are leading variables, and finally, government consumption, export, trade account, net export, real exchange rate, REER, all price indicators, banking sector indicators nominal, the real wage, M0 and M2 are lagging variables. Key findings include that external shocks, political instability, trade, and change in demand both domestically and abroad, and procicalical monetary and fiscal policies are the main reasons behind the boom and bust cycle in RGDP in Egypt. Shocks to trend growth are the main source of RGDP fluctuations.

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